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In times of turbulence, we find ourselves returning to those foundational lenses. This piece shares 10 questions that can help executives cut through the noise—zooming out to see big-picture implications and zooming in on near-term threats and opportunities.
For Your Consideration:
- Which assumptions will have the biggest impact on how the future unfolds?
- What trends have accelerated and are likely to reshape your industry?
- Where have temporary changes revealed better ways to get key jobs done?
- Which new habits are reshaping how customers define quality?
- What system-level shifts are reprioritizing customer needs?
- Are upstart disruptors targeting key jobs with breakthrough models?
- What “reverb” opportunities are opening new paths to growth?
- What new behaviors are required to compete in a more dynamic world?
- What legacy systems or habits are blocking those behaviors?
- What behavior enablers, artifacts, and nudges (BEANs) can help shift them?
Lens 1: Future-Back Strategy
While we all live “present-forward,” strategy in uncertain times must be developed “future-back.” That means picking a point on the horizon—whether one year or ten—then working backward to define what needs to happen today to achieve that future.
Start by aligning on what the future might look like, based on key trends and assumptions. Define a bold aspiration: where to play, how to win, and what financial goals to pursue. Then, reverse-engineer the steps to get there.
Two key questions:
- What outcome-defining assumptions shape your future scenarios?
- What trends are accelerating and reshaping the landscape?
Lens 2: Jobs to Be Done
People don’t buy products—they “hire” them to get a job done. A job is a specific problem a customer is trying to solve in a particular context. Understanding that job allows innovators to define quality the way customers do.
Jobs may be stable, but shifts in context—new habits, barriers, or expectations—can lead customers to redefine what matters most. Look for dislocations that create openings for new offerings or redefine what “good” looks like.
Three questions to explore:
- Where have new solutions proven better than old ones?
- What habits are reshaping how customers define success?
- What system changes are reprioritizing customer preferences?
Lens 3: Disruptive Innovation
Disruptive innovations often start by serving overlooked segments with simpler, cheaper solutions. As those offerings improve, they move upmarket—eventually unseating incumbents.
Ask:
- Are new players targeting dislocated jobs in ways that could break through?
- What overlooked needs or underserved segments could fuel disruptive growth?
History shows that big disruptions often create room for upstarts. Recognizing those patterns early lets you get ahead of them—or become one.
Lens 4: Encouraging Innovation Habits
Innovation struggles not because of a lack of ideas, but because of deeply entrenched behaviors. Habits that favor control, efficiency, or risk-aversion often block the curiosity, agility, and experimentation innovation requires.
To shift behavior, we suggest launching “BEANs”—Behavior Enablers, Artifacts, and Nudges. These small but powerful tools can help reinforce the right habits and remove the blockers.
Ask:
- What specific new behaviors are needed to thrive?
- What habits or systems are standing in the way?
- What small tools or rituals could enable the shift?
Conclusion: Use Theory to Cut Through the Fog
When uncertainty is high, it’s tempting to rely on instinct. But instinct often leads to debate—“I think this…” vs. “I believe that…” The better move is to apply theory. When teams agree on the lens and the assumptions going in, better decisions follow.
Using the right lenses doesn’t eliminate uncertainty. But it makes it easier to see through it—and find the next opportunity on the other side.
