INNOBLOG

Recently, Apple has received acclaim for the fabulous success of its iPod product line. About 15 years ago, Apple was on the verge of pioneering another category with its Newton personal digital assistant (PDA). That effort famously flopped. It wasnt just Apple that got it wrong, however. Sony, Motorola, and Hewlett-Packard, among others, failed to pioneer the category. All told, companies squandered more than $1 billion following doomed strategies. Who won the space? A startup called Palm Computing.

The high failure rate of smart companies in a new space shouldnt be a surprise: An overwhelming amount of evidence suggests that companies entering into new markets tend to start with the wrong strategy. This simple statement has profound implications. No one would pour money into a strategy known to be fatally flawed, but companies make just such a mistake by stepping up investment in an unproven strategy too early.

We believe that an emergent strategy process can improve a companys odds of success by systematically addressing the risks and unknowns that typify uncertain ideas. In a recent Strategy & Innovation article, the full text of which is available by subscribing here, we give a detailed explanation of what an emergent strategy process is and also describe four simple steps managers can follow to master the process. By comprehensively laying out assumptions and risks, focusing first on the critical areas of uncertainty, executing smart experiments, and adjusting based on the results, companies can quickly adjust"or shelve"flawed ideas, increasing the chances of ultimate success.

The article concludes with a look at how this process can help companies speed through the fuzzy front-end of innovation. Many process experts advise firms to cut the number of projects they undertake to speed the innovation process. Counterintuitively, companies that follow the approach we outline described can speed the overall process by increasing the number of projects they consider.