Rumors that Apple is preparing to introduce a tablet device have been around for almost as long as there were rumors that it would introduce a cell phone (and look how that turned out). This week, no less a bastion of salmon-colored credibility than the Financial Times exclaimed that “Apple is racing to offer a portable tablet-sized computer in time for the Christmas shopping season,” so perhaps this year Santa will finally make those rumors a reality. I worry, however, that Apple might not be quite as successful as it’s been with the iPod and iPhone – I’m sure they’ll make a beautiful device, but what if consumers just don’t care?
Device manufacturers (both incumbents in the computer industry and niche players) have been toying with the “tablet” category and others like it for years, but the segment remains sparsely populated and sales have never been very high. So-called “Ultra-Mobile PCs” were aimed at roughly the product category Apple appears to be targeting (something shoehorned in between a laptop and a portable media player like an iPod), and the category received substantial investment from Microsoft through its Origami platform, but the products haven’t gained any traction. The high prices and usability problems that have plagued these devices have undoubtedly been an obstacle, but I think misalignment with consumers’ jobs-to-be-done is an issue here as well.
What jobs would a tablet device do better than existing devices? If I want to do some relatively “light” computing on the go (listening to music, doing e-mail, reading the news, surfing the Internet), Apple will gladly sell me an iPhone 3GS, which has the added advantages over a tablet of being able to make calls and fit in my pocket. Of course, Apple’s tablet will probably be more capable than the iPhone, but it will likely be big enough that it will have to compete with even more capable devices. To take a tablet device with me everywhere I’d need to bring something to carry it in, and once I do that a tablet device isn’t a whole lot more portable than a netbook – and those are cheaper than Apple’s tablet will probably be and have full QWERTY keyboards (which Apple’s tablet might not).
Of course, in comparing a still-theoretical device to other devices that seem roughly similar to it, I may be overlooking other jobs Apple’s tablet might address – Wired, for instance, suggests it might compete with Amazon’s Kindle to replace books. There again, however, I am skeptical; not only does Amazon have a substantial head start in understanding the space, attracting consumers, and establishing relationships with publishers, but its device’s e-ink display (which Apple’s tablet would probably not emulate) simply makes for more comfortable reading than traditional LCD screens. Furthermore, especially since the recent ironic Orwell kerfuffle, consumer skepticism of “e-readers” remains high.
All that having been said, it’s impossible to offer really reliable predictions about the success or failure of a device no one knows much about, and Apple certainly has a mixed track record when it comes to novel innovative products (think MacBook Air, iPod, and iPhone vs. Newton and G4 Cube). Nevertheless, it seems to me at this point that the tablet form factor just isn’t a very good fit with consumers’ jobs; we’ll have to wait and see if Apple surprises us.
