If you work in a large company and you want to become humble quickly, check out Stall Points, a fascinating stream of research by the Corporate Executive Board that was recently a cover story for the Harvard Business Review. The research shows that almost all companies hit a point where historical growth rates decelerate. Once the corporate growth engine stalls, it is very hard to restart.
The study involved close to 500 companies that have appeared on the Fortune 100 or international equivalents over the past 50 years. Close to 90 percent of those companies experienced a stall, or “secular reversals in company growth fortunes.” Only 50 percent of companies that stalled were able to grow even moderately over the next decade.
There are many reasons why growth becomes increasingly difficult as a company grows. One challenge is that the hurdle for new initiatives becomes so high that many potential game-changing initiatives never see the light of day.
A few weeks ago I was with a group of senior executives at a Fortune 100 company. We were talking about the strategic objectives of that company’s innovation efforts. One executive said that $1 billion felt like a reasonable target for a generic new growth initiative. Another said, “A billion is nice, but at our size we really need to set the target at $10 billion.”
Mathematically, of course, the executive is right. It got me thinking, though. Only 261 public U.S. companies had $10 billion in revenues last year. How many of the high-flying start-up companies over the last decade reached $10 billion in revenue in 10 years? Well, Google hit $10 billion in its eighth year (2006) and … I think that’s it. …
Read the rest at Scott's Harvard Management blog, Innovation Insights