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INNOBLOG

the insider's guide to innovation

Tuesday, August 14th, 2007

Online storage solutions herald disruptive change in personal computing

Alex Slawsby


In recent days, Google, Microsoft, and Apple have all announced new online storage offerings. Approximately 17 months after Amazon.com launched its own "Simple Storage Service, the widening race to stake claims in online storage heralds the impending emergence of a new platform, or paradigm, that has massive disruptive potential.

On August 7, Apple announced that user accounts on its .Mac service would now feature 10GB of storage, increased from 1GB. According to news reports, the increased storage level would not result in an increase in the yearly subscription rate ($99) for .Mac.

Two days later, on August 9, Google announced that folks with Google accounts could purchase additional online storage capacity over-and-above the free 2.82 GB allotted to Gmail and the free 1 GB allotted to Picasa Web Albums. For $20/year, one can purchase an additional 6 GB of storage (the minimum upgrade level) and there are three greater price/storage tiers up to an additional 250 GB of storage for $500/year. At present, the storage can only officially be used for Gmail and Picasa accounts, although one suspects that through the use of an extension such as Gmail Drive (not approved by Google), individuals could use that space to drag-and-drop any file for remote storage.

On that same day, Microsoft announced that Windows Live SkyDrive, an upgrade to Windows Live Folders, was publicly available. Still in beta, the service comes with 500MB of free online storage that folks can use, much as the Gmail Drive solution noted above, to drag-and-drop any file for remote storage. SkyDrive also allows for the posting of files to public directories that anyone can browse.

Given the decreasing cost of storage solutions and the revenue generated by online advertising, it is not surprising that free or inexpensive online storage options are beginning to enjoy accelerating growth in both variety and capacity. Coupled with the growing availability of wired and wireless broadband connectivity, it seems to be just a matter of time before the mainstream user transfers the majority of his or her storage from local/attached solutions to cloud-based solutions. Ultimately, only limited applications will required the type of performance that local/attached solutions can provide while cloud-based solutions will be less expensive, more accessible, and more reliable from a data backup standpoint.

Consider the implications of the following scenario. End-users are already beginning to discover the benefits of no cost, ad-supported, online services. The depth and breadth of those services will expand extremely quickly and it is likely that the majority of frequently-used applications will move online, perhaps with the exception of performance-intensive applications. As Google and other providers have already proven (and as we have blogged about here, here, here, and here), some of the local client-based applications used most frequently by consumers and enterprises, including electronic mail, word processing, and spreadsheets, can be quite compelling in an online-only form.

The expanding availability of high-bandwidth, low-latency connectivity will also make it possible for end-users to increasingly store their own personal files online, making them easily accessible from any connected client with that accessibility delivering tremendous value. Furthermore, it seems likely that if end-users are willing to accept a certain level of advertising (say, the interaction with one advertisement a day or listening to a brief audio advertisement before the beginning of a song), online hosts may be more than willing to offer free, unlimited multimedia files to end-users to draw them to such advertisements or to have greater access to their habits and preferences.

The logical progression of this scenario finds end-users completing an increasing amount of those computing jobs-to-be-done online, particularly those of a personal nature. Further, consider end-users accessing their music or video files from a personal computer at home, a mobile phone while walking, a car while driving, or an airplane while traveling. Next, consider end-users knowing that they can always access all of their content from any location, just so long as they have some connected, smart client device, from a mobile phone or personal computer to a vehicle or watch to a television or other appliance, within reach. The value of such accessibility, particularly if it is ad-supported, is clear and significant.

Upon the premise that a rapidly growing percentage of end-users are willing to accept advertisements and give up some personal information in return for free content and services, the long-dominant American model of personal computer-centricity and repeated hardware and software upgrade cycles now comes into question. With the exception of computing-intensive jobs, such as video game playing and high-performance computing, there is no reason why the vast majority of applications and vast majority of end-user content will not simply find its way online in the future.

Once end-user tasks shift from local applications and storage to online storage and online access to information and applications, the age-old emphasis on local computing resources will begin to fade. Rather than building or purchasing personal computers with significant hardware specifications and thick, expensive layers of local software, from the operating system to office suites, end-users will increasingly look for connected client devices with browsers capable of satisfying their particular jobs.

If the job is one of content creation, for example, the end-user will seek out a client with a large-display, keyboard and mouse, and a browser capable of delivering a compelling, hosted, word processing, spreadsheet, or presentation application. If the job is one of mobile content access, the end-user may select a small client device in the form of a mobile phone or media player with limited display and input capabilities, but long battery life, portability, and a browser capable of accessing and playing streaming multimedia through speakers or headphones.

If an end-user is simply looking for glanceable information, he or she may choose a small client in the form of a stylish, connected, watch with a wearable design, but minimal display capabilities and a limited browser capable of displaying only text-based information such as news and instant messages. Perhaps the end-user is driving to work and would like his or her messages read verbally as well as access to streaming audio, maps, and directions the browser built into the car would do the trick. During breakfast, a display on the side of a refrigerator, perhaps coupled with a limited browser and touchscreen, would deliver the morning news in a manner conducive to passive consumption, rightsized to the relevant job.

Prior to the delivery of applications or content, online hosts would identify the characteristics of the client device, the browser, and the connection and deliver an appropriately-formatted experience. If the client device and browser are full-featured and able to leverage a wired, low-latency, high-bandwidth broadband connection, the host would deliver a rich, pleasing, bandwidth-intensive experience. On the other hand, If the client device and browser are designed for mobility and online via a spotty, high-latency, relatively low-bandwidth connection, the host would adapt, greatly reducing the feature set delivered and ensuring that only the most essential bits and pieces of information found their way to the client device. Essentially, content and applications would be available in any location, at any time, and end-users would select the most appropriate client device and browser for their specific needs, tasks, and usage profile.

The implications for this scenario on the business of software, hardware, services, and content are significant and the potential for disruption is widespread. Will the network finally become the computer? Are the days of the personal computer and packaged software, as we know them today, numbered? How soon might this scenario play out? What are your thoughts?








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Discussion


From: Hans Oh
Posted: Wednesday, August 15th, 2007 - 9:37 am EDT

Interesting post. Overall, I agree with the general point of the post - that network based computing with content stored on the Internet will be one of the next shifts in technology.

We can see this happening already with examples like Flickr and other Web2.0 sites. While this seems to be adopted quickly for personal entertainment purposes, what about for health related purposes like storing one's personal health information?

In my experience, health care is very conservative and risk averse (which isn't necessarily a bad thing when dealing with people's lives). But, when you try to suggest alternative options, especially related to using technology, the system seems unable to respond appropriately.

People will likely use an Internet-based solution when seeking health information, but may be less enthusiastic about having one's personal health record stored "on the cloud". I haven't been able to determine if patients or health professionals are the ones driving the often hysterical concerns over security and privacy of health information. Also, there seems to be a noticeable difference when it comes to sharing personal health information versus other types of information.

The benefits you point out seem obvious and desirable. Let's see how the system and legislators/laws handle this development regarding health. Would you be willing to store your personal health information on a web start-up? Google? Microsoft? The government? I'd love to hear some follow-up discussion about health issues.

One last question - would this "cloud" computing be markedly different from having a personal server housed at home and being able to access one's information (be it movies, music, health information, or otherwise) from what you're discussing in the post? Based on your ideas, I can see two types of scenarios emerging: one where everything we once did on a computer is on the Internet (probably for the vast majority); and another when a selection of services are provided via the Internet, but that our "computing" needs will be shifted to personalized "server" devices at home, providing storage and access to information (a somewhat hybrid solution).


From: Alex Slawsby
Posted: Friday, August 17th, 2007 - 10:28 am EDT

I agree - health-related information will be some of the last information to find its way online in any sort of public storage solution. Over time, the regulatory system should become more flexible (as the storage solutions improve along security, usability, audit dimensions among others), but I don't think we're talking short-term here. While users of computing, particularly young users, are increasingly willing to put their lives online (i.e. Facebook, MySpace) and aren't nervous about the idea of their habits and preferences being tracked, I think health information remains personal content that they would find unacceptable if stored anywhere but in the form of a healthcare provider/insurance company-hosted EHR.

I agree as well with your second point of the personal server. I believe that cloud-based solutions will be just fine for the majority of users, but some folks, maybe those more technically-inclined, will go with a home-based solution. Such home-based solutions will always require more knowledge and attention to setup/use/maintain/troubleshoot, however, than an online solution which will most likely include automatic backups and just relieve the end-user of all need to worry about/think about storage. Ultimately, cloud-based solutions can remove 'technology' from the equation and just "work" - users can focus on their application or content and not worry about where it's being stored, if it's being backed up, if it will be available etc...whereas home solutions are more likely to force the user to worry about such things...


From: Innoblog
Posted: Saturday, August 18th, 2007 - 8:22 am EDT

In my last blog post, I referenced recent announcements by Microsoft, Google, and Apple of new or increased online storage offerings. In the post, I took advantage of these announcements to envision a world where personal computing (i.e. applications, sto


From: Toffene Kama
Posted: Saturday, August 25th, 2007 - 3:32 am EDT

I agree with the post that the days of personal computers with tick and heavy hardware and packaged software are counted. However, I do not think online storage will fix the problem. and before being consumer solution, I think it makes more sense for corporates to build and share the same "office remote computer" for storage, packaged softwares etc .. and let the employees with very thin clients. The problem make more sense considering the executive travelling with heavy Laptops with all the corporate sensitive info.
For me two main points are to be fixed to have a really disruptive solution:
1) define some mechanisms allowing the thin client to ask for ressources to the remote computer when local resources cannot complte the ongoing task. This mechanism should be at real time and must adapt to the network type : mobile, fixed broadband etc ...
2) The thin client should combine at least 3 types of displays : a PC like display, GPS like display, and small mobile one. those three configurations should be dockable each within the larger . The user willing to call will just unplug the mobile phone like device and start calling. when back at office, he can just plug the larger display and have a standard office computer.


From: Cann
Posted: Tuesday, October 27th, 2009 - 2:14 am EDT

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From: Cann
Posted: Tuesday, October 27th, 2009 - 2:17 am EDT

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